Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.328560 0.377613 0.430918 0.493071 0.563476 0.640673 0.731655
2025-07-20 0.259440 0.324325 0.400361 0.495757 0.611941 0.748533 0.920953
2025-07-27 0.213356 0.288323 0.382492 0.508796 0.673015 0.878463 1.154028
2025-08-03 0.178152 0.259314 0.368199 0.523689 0.738519 1.023121 1.426610
2025-08-10 0.140175 0.219573 0.333204 0.505679 0.758352 1.111910 1.640201
2025-08-17 0.108874 0.183276 0.296681 0.479267 0.762188 1.179181 1.833899
2025-08-24 0.088618 0.159765 0.274871 0.470744 0.790520 1.284984 2.097413
2025-08-31 0.072458 0.139627 0.254737 0.461281 0.815627 1.388891 2.371743
2025-09-07 0.062601 0.128382 0.247312 0.471411 0.873741 1.551960 2.760369
2025-09-14 0.050705 0.110843 0.225667 0.453016 0.880245 1.630618 3.019643
2025-09-21 0.042476 0.098672 0.211655 0.446017 0.905589 1.744077 3.351864
2025-09-28 0.035291 0.087056 0.196543 0.434204 0.919881 1.839085 3.662164
2025-10-05 0.031200 0.081566 0.193421 0.446994 0.985907 2.041788 4.203447
2025-10-12 0.026658 0.073973 0.184416 0.446054 1.024506 2.197843 4.677182
2025-10-19 0.023494 0.069000 0.180345 0.455260 1.085918 2.407049 5.281618
2025-10-26 0.020899 0.064858 0.177433 0.466668 1.154000 2.638662 5.959864
2025-11-02 0.017234 0.056814 0.163325 0.449014 1.154157 2.728044 6.354358
2025-11-09 0.013920 0.048817 0.147589 0.424308 1.133867 2.770394 6.653578
2025-11-16 0.011803 0.043843 0.138856 0.415910 1.151499 2.899346 7.158499
2025-11-23 0.010006 0.039355 0.130493 0.406893 1.166130 3.023156 7.666449
2025-11-30 0.008991 0.037224 0.128578 0.415458 1.227504 3.264878 8.475370
2025-12-07 0.007468 0.032777 0.118571 0.398776 1.219048 3.336279 8.888468
2025-12-14 0.006420 0.029762 0.112403 0.392315 1.237555 3.476842 9.485455